Gregory Daco

Industrial production weakness in the United States has led to increased talk of a recession, but a deeper examination shows that this weakness is highly concentrated in energy and globally exposed sectors.

The 19th-century British economist David Ricardo recognized that even when a nation is more efficient than another at producing all goods, it benefits by focusing on the one for which it is internally most efficient, and trading for the others.

Global supply patterns have changed dramatically since the beginning of the 20th century— not just once but several times—and they will continue to change over time.