Half of commercial vehicles sold in the U.S. will be zero emissions by 2040, ACT says

Half of all commercial vehicles sold in the U.S. will be zero emissions by 2040, as increasing numbers of states adopt California’s lead in requiring low-emissions trucks, according to a report from transportation industry analysis firm ACT Research.

The adoption rates for zero-emission and decarbonized vehicles will reach 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2040, ACT said in “Charging Forward,” a multi-client decarbonization study of the US commercial vehicle market. That change will be driven in the early years by regulations, particularly for autos with a higher gross vehicle weight—the combined mass of the vehicle and its payload—the study said. Lower GVW applications don’t need that extra push since they already offer a better total cost of ownership (TCO) today.

The study defines commercial vehicles as Class 4 to 8 automobiles, including: step van, conventional, low cab forward, recreational vehicle (RV), school bus, transit bus, straight truck, day cab, and sleeper models. It covers decarbonization powertrains replacing diesel, such as: battery electric, fuel cell electric, natural gas, gasoline, hydrogen internal combustion, propane, and hybrid. 

“We forecast a relatively low adoption rate from 2024 through 2026, reflecting the fact that [battery electric vehicle] sales of commercial vehicles are still in their early years,” Ann Rundle, Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy with ACT Research, said in a release. “This begins to change in 2027, in part due to the cost increases for diesels because of the increased stringency of US EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. In addition, by 2027, eight states will have joined California in adopting Advanced Clean Trucks, resulting in moderate growth in adoption rates.”

By 2030 ACT Research is forecasting 25% adoption rates, as by then the remaining nine states that signed the MOU to adopt the California Air Resources Board (CARB)’s Advanced Clean Trucks standard will have enacted those regulations. In all, 18 jurisdictions have adopted California’s commercial vehicle emissions regulation standards, including: Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Virginia, Nevada, and Quebec.

The study also forecasts that such regulations will have less of an impact over time, as improved battery technology will negate battery replacement costs, and charging infrastructure utilization will significantly increase, decreasing those costs in the TCO. “By 2040 we are forecasting that adoption of ZEVs will account for just slightly above 50%—essentially half of all CVs will be zero emissions, primarily BEVs,” Rundle said.