Slow times to continue, trucking industry experts say
Business leaders gathered for supply chain conference say sluggish freight conditions will hang around for a while and that a broader economic recession is likely to follow.
The freight recession continues, with an outlook that calls for relief sometime in early 2024, according to trucking industry experts gathered for SMC3 Connections 2023, held this week in Orlando. Roughly 400 attendees turned out for the three-day supply chain education event, which brings together carriers, shippers, logistics services providers, and technology companies across trucking and logistics markets.
Representatives from large carriers, especially those serving truckload (TL) markets, emphasized the ongoing freight recession and its effects on the supply chain through the first half of the year. In a panel discussion about managing risk in today’s climate, Brad Stewart, treasurer and senior vice president at TL carrier Knight-Swift, noted that demand for service across the TL market has never been “this persistently quiet,” and others indicated that a mild recession in the less-than-truckload (LTL) market is likely on the horizon, as is a recession in the broader economy.
Economist Keith Prather elaborated on the economic outlook in a follow-up session, agreeing that a U.S. recession is likely, but adding that it will probably be “shallow and short.” Referring to “a lot of moving parts” on the economic landscape—including high interest rates and uncertainties about the strength of this year’s peak holiday shipping season—he said 2024 and 2025 may add up to a “slow digging out” from the low points of 2023. Prather is a managing partner and co-founder of consulting firm Armada Corporate Intelligence.
Technology was another hot topic, with many of the conference sessions focused on how artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing the trucking market, especially LTL and last-mile logistics. Key applications for AI include addressing labor issues—by freeing employees from mundane tasks, such as managing routine email correspondence, so they can focus on more complex, value-added activities—and for enhancing visibility and predictability in industry-focused software applications, such as transportation management systems (TMS).
SMC3 provides industry data, technology solutions, and education programming for LTL and supply chain markets.