Hurricane season kicks off with uncertain weather models

As the North American hurricane season begins, weather models are generating conflicting forecasts, so logistics providers are preparing their resilience plans to be ready for anything.

The Atlantic hurricane season stretches from June 1 to November 30, and according to the lead federal forecaster, this year will bring “near-normal hurricane activity,” the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) said May 25.

That would mean a range of 12 to 17 total named storms, including 5 to 9 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 could be major hurricanes. However, that forecast includes nearly equal chances of other outcomes, with a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

Indeed, a recent model from the University of Arizona concluded that 2023 would see above-average hurricane activity, after two years of relatively mild storm seasons. Fortunately, those researchers also said that fewer of those storms are predicted to make landfall.

Faced with that uncertainty, logistics providers are applying lessons learned from past years, including the destructive wreckage caused in 2017 by hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

The Southeast regional supermarket chain Publix said last week that it had teamed with OrderInsite, a Nashville-based order management technology firm, to implement a hurricane action plan for its pharmacy operations. 

Publix operates more than 1,200 pharmacies across seven states in the Southeast which are impacted during hurricane season, so the company will use the technology to apply predictive analytics, quick adjustments for re-ordering, and drug forecasting to fast-track specific prescription medications to the stores in a storm’s path. That specialized plan is necessary so customers don’t run out of critical medications in the aftermath of a storm, despite the limited storage space and unpredictable demand at most pharmacies, the partners said.

And mega-retailer Amazon said it has more than doubled the capacity of its Disaster Relief Hub in Atlanta by prepositioning 2.4 million relief items ahead of the 2023 hurricane season. The company said it has stocked those goods in a special facility for quick deployment to disaster-affected communities, in partnership with American Red Cross, Save the Children, World Central Kitchen, and other nonprofit groups.

“As natural disasters increase in frequency and severity, we’re expanding our Disaster Relief Hub in Atlanta, allowing us to deliver more items in less time during this year’s hurricane season,” Abe Diaz, head of Amazon Disaster Relief, said in a release. “Since 2017, we’ve responded to more than 100 natural disasters and humanitarian crises in the U.S. and across the world. We’ve donated more than 23 million relief items, and we’ve mobilized our teams and used our logistics capabilities to help communities in need.”