We use cookies to provide you with a better experience. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.
  • INDUSTRY PRESS ROOM
  • SUBMISSIONS
  • MEDIA FILE
  • Create Account
  • Sign In
  • Sign Out
  • My Account
Free Newsletters
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • CSCMP EDGE 2022 Startup Alley
    • Upload your video
  • PODCAST ETC
    • Podcast
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • Reflections
      • SCQ Forum
    • Mobile Apps
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • CSCMP EDGE 2022 Startup Alley
    • Upload your video
  • PODCAST ETC
    • Podcast
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • Reflections
      • SCQ Forum
    • Mobile Apps
Home » Chance of mild recession rises, but “soft landing” still most likely outcome of inflation fight

Chance of mild recession rises, but “soft landing” still most likely outcome of inflation fight

Positive and negative economic forces are “crashing into one another” in turbulent environment, ACT research says.

ACT helloquence-61189-unsplash-10-700x441.jpeg
June 13, 2022
Supply Chain Quarterly Staff
No Comments

As the U.S. economy struggles with high inflation, rising interest rates, and volatile stock markets, the potential for a mild recession is becoming more likely, although a “soft landing” is still the most likely path, according to transportation analysis firm ACT Research.

“We find ourselves in a turbulent environment, where still significant positive and increasingly negative economic forces are crashing into one another. With inflationary shocks emanating from Ukraine, the Fed’s task of engineering a soft landing has become increasingly challenging,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst of Columbus, Indiana-based ACT, said in a release. “We believe downward pressures are building, and the probability of recession continues to grow. We think the probability of a mild recession is now nearly as likely as that of our base-case scenario.”

For the time being, those looming financial impacts are being offset by the U.S. economy’s strong forward momentum, charged by a “head of steam” that includes healthy consumer and business balance sheets, strong employment demand, and pent-up manufacturing sector activity. For example, the latest Logistics Manager’s Index report (LMI) showed that the logistics economy grew again in May, despite being cooled from its rapid pace of the past two years because of moderating transportation markets.

The U.S. central bank is now trying to preserve that momentum even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in its fight against inflation. So far, consumers have shrugged off rising prices and the higher cost of borrowing money, but factors like surging gas and diesel prices are pinching profit margins for many businesses, particularly those in the transportation sector.

“We believe the odds of a recession materializing, in some form or fashion, are essentially 50/50 relative to our slowing topline growth into a modest freight recession base case,” Vieth said.

ACT Research: Mild Recession Scenario Being Considered in Forecasting of NA CV Marketshttps://t.co/1zg3lzJCvP

— ACT Research (@actresearch) June 13, 2022
Finance Global
KEYWORDS ACT Research
  • Related Articles

    Economy continues to cool, but danger of full freight recession dims, ACT says

    Report: Manufacturing execs say global recession is likely in 2020

    Economist warns of moderate recession in 2020

Recent Articles by Supply Chain Quarterly Staff

Kearney launches “supply chain institute” as more companies seek resilience plans

Trucking industry lobbies for leverage in transition to zero emissions

Safety will be top of mind on National Forklift Safety Day 2023

You must login or register in order to post a comment.

Report Abusive Comment

Most Popular Articles

  • Survey: most Americans unaware that truckers face shortage of parking spaces

  • Best practices in logistics sustainability

  • Supply chain executives not yet seeing expected results from technology investments

  • Postal Service plans to seize items mailed with fake stamps

  • Inflation drops again as interest rate hikes hit home, NRF says

Featured Video

20221107korber large vs

Enhancing Customer Experience with Your Supply Chain Strategy

Viewer Contributed
With the rise of e-commerce, many businesses have had to transform their warehouses to handle online orders in addition to regularly scheduled inventory shipments. This means warehouses need more information than ever before to ensure they can meet customers' needs. As a result, companies need to select warehouse...

FEATURED WHITE PAPERS

  • Guide to Pallet Rack Safety

  • 3PLs: Complete Orders Faster with Flexible Automation

  • A shipper's guide to navigating post-pandemic holiday freight

  • THE NEW WAY TO WAREHOUSE: 4 Innovations in Automation & Robotics to Boost Warehouse Productivity

View More

Subscribe to Supply Chain Quarterly

Get Your Subscription
  • SUBSCRIBE
  • E-NEWSLETTERS
  • ADVERTISING
  • CUSTOMER CARE
  • CONTACT
  • ABOUT
  • STAFF
  • PRIVACY POLICY

Copyright ©2023. All Rights ReservedDesign, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing