Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology continues to advance and will become a $50 billion market by 2040, according to a report from Lux Research, released today.
The report details the growing advances in AVs across all markets—including logistics, ride-sharing, and consumer use—and offers a timeline for widespread adoption of various levels of automation. The researchers say all vehicles will have at least level 2 autonomy—meaning they’ll be equipped with hands-free, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)—by 2039. Far fewer vehicles are expected to be fully autonomous, or level 4, by that time.
“Level 4, or completely self-driving, vehicles aren’t the only goal,” Christopher Robinson, senior analyst at Lux Research and lead author of the report, said in a statement Thursday. “Hands-free level 2 ADAS systems will grow rapidly in popularity across all regions, and by 2039, all vehicles will feature at least this level of autonomy. Level 3 autonomous systems will be introduced in 2021 and by 2040 will make up the largest portion of revenues from autonomous vehicles.”
Level 3 systems include more advanced features, such as automated parking.
The report lists four factors that may affect the trajectory of AV growth over the next several years: