We use cookies to provide you with a better experience. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.
  • ::COVID-19 COVERAGE::
  • INDUSTRY PRESS ROOM
  • SUBMISSIONS
  • MEDIA FILE
  • Create Account
  • Sign In
  • Sign Out
  • My Account
Free Newsletters
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • Upload your video
  • BLOGS & MORE
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • SCQ Forum
      • Reflections
    • Mobile Apps
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • Upload your video
  • BLOGS & MORE
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • SCQ Forum
      • Reflections
    • Mobile Apps
Home » U.S.-China trade expert: Don't expect resolution of trade dispute any time soon
Forward Thinking

U.S.-China trade expert: Don't expect resolution of trade dispute any time soon

November 15, 2019
Toby Gooley
No Comments

Amy P. CelicoAlthough the United States and China have announced that their leaders hope to sign a "Phase 1" agreement that would take first steps toward resolving their ongoing trade dispute, the two sides remain far apart in their expectations of what that agreement would accomplish. 

That's not surprising, given that the U.S. and China have different objectives, according to Amy P. Celico, principal at the strategic advisory and commercial diplomacy firm Albright Stonebridge Group. Celico, a former U.S. diplomat in China and senior director for China affairs in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, discussed the two countries' approaches to negotiations at the Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's 18th Annual Northeast Cargo Symposium in Providence, R.I., earlier this month.  

Celico explained that, in a nutshell, China wants the U.S. to cancel tariffs on such items as cell phones, laptops, and children's toys that are currently scheduled to go into effect on Dec. 15, and to roll back tariffs that went into effect earlier this year. The U.S. wants China to address trade barriers surrounding intellectual property, business subsidies, currency valuation, and other issues it considers to be unfair to U.S. business or in violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. U.S. officials have said they have not made any commitments to cancel tariffs, despite China's assertion to the contrary.

Both President Trump and China's President Xi want an interim deal, Celico said, but even if they sign it, that agreement is not likely to "get at the heart of the issues" between the trading partners. Those will probably be dealt with in a "Phase 2" negotiation sometime in the future, she added.

The U.S. approach of imposing successive tranches of tariffs on Chinese goods has "brought China to the table to negotiate in a more meaningful way" than in the past, Celico said. But what she termed a "fundamental misalignment of reality" between Beijing and Washington could hold back progress on any deal, as each side thinks it has more power to make the other side change, she said. China does not want to bend to U.S. pressure to change its economic structure and is willing to wait out the dispute; Celico said she believes China thinks that if it just buys more U.S. agricultural products, then the U.S. will "cave." The U.S. perspective, meanwhile, is that China will have to give in to keep its economy growing, and that the strong U.S. economy will allow the United States to stand its ground, she said. 

Although the trade dispute and the impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses are understandably the big story right now, more is at stake in a world where the U.S. and China have long been "the twin propellers of global growth," Celico cautioned. Xi believes China "should make the rules, and not take direction from others, and both countries are essentially rewriting global trade rules without involving other participants," she observed, saying that may not be a successful strategy. It will be hard for China to be as aggressive as Xi wants to be unless it makes more "friends" among other nations, and if the U.S. isn't "more active in restoring its alliances" it will find it difficult to compete globally with China, she said.

Global Procurement
  • Related Articles

    China and U.S. face “reckoning” over trade disruptions in 2021

    U.S. supply chains adopt “China Plus One” strategy to diversify trade patterns

    Global Trade and Container Flow Index: China slows down global trade

Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.

Recent Articles by Toby Gooley

Navigating the new normal

On top of the (business) world

Leaving China to avoid tariffs? Look before you leap

You must login or register in order to post a comment.

Report Abusive Comment

Most Popular Articles

  • The 3PL industry: time to reset

  • Supply chain resiliency starts with supplier mapping

  • Freight market growth expected to slow in 2021

  • Seizing the helm

  • The Top Supply Chain Pains That You Should Address For a Healthier 2021

Featured Video

Be8de8b1 9bd3 48d6 9400 0bf476fd1f5d

Optimization Through Lean Management 

Viewer Contributed
Uncertain times can put a tremendous strain on your business’s people, processes and supply chains. However, operations can mitigate some of these factors by adopting lean management principles and instilling a culture of continuous improvement. Raymond Lean Management Manager of Solutions and Support Centers Keith...

FEATURED WHITE PAPERS

  • The Top Supply Chain Pains That You Should Address For a Healthier 2021

  • Research Report: New Rules for Supply Chain Insights, Collaboration and Overall Resiliency

  • Logistics 2030 – Navigating a Disruptive Decade (Year 2 Report)

View More

Subscribe to Supply Chain Quarterly

Get Your Subscription
  • SUBSCRIBE
  • E-NEWSLETTERS
  • ADVERTISING
  • CUSTOMER CARE
  • CONTACT
  • ABOUT
  • STAFF
  • PRIVACY POLICY

Copyright ©2021. All Rights ReservedDesign, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing