We use cookies to provide you with a better experience. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies in accordance with our Cookie Policy.
  • INDUSTRY PRESS ROOM
  • SUBMISSIONS
  • MEDIA FILE
  • Create Account
  • Sign In
  • Sign Out
  • My Account
Free Newsletters
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • CSCMP EDGE 2022 Startup Alley
    • Upload your video
  • PODCAST ETC
    • Podcast
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • Reflections
      • SCQ Forum
    • Mobile Apps
  • MAGAZINE
    • Current Issue
    • Archives
    • Digital Edition
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
  • STRATEGY
  • GLOBAL
  • LOGISTICS
  • MANUFACTURING
  • PROCUREMENT
  • VIDEO
    • News & Exclusives
    • Viewer Contributed
    • CSCMP EDGE 2022 Startup Alley
    • Upload your video
  • PODCAST ETC
    • Podcast
    • White Papers
    • Webcasts
    • Events
    • Blogs
      • Reflections
      • SCQ Forum
    • Mobile Apps
Home » Global trade growth to slow in early 2019, DHL study forecasts
Forward Thinking

Global trade growth to slow in early 2019, DHL study forecasts

November 28, 2018
Ben Ames
No Comments

The volume of containerized international trade will continue to expand for the next three months, but its growth rate will shrink in the face of political challenges like U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the U.K.'s pending exit from the European Union, according to a forecast released today by German transport and logistics giant Deutsche Post DHL Group.

The November version of the quarterly "Global Trade Barometer," produced for DHL by the Accenture consulting firm, reports a combined global index value of 61 for the seven nations tracked. Index values above 50 forecast an increase in world trade, so the result predicts that global trade will continue to grow over the next three months.

PUT_ALT_TXT_HERE

The study is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence (AI), DHL says. Judging by the results, the indices for all seven countries that constitute the index are above 50 points, although those numbers have each shrunk since the forecast's previous release in September. Those figures forecast that expected trade development over the next three months will be highest in India (with an index of 75), followed by South Korea (64) and the U.S. (61). The other countries tracked are China (58), Japan (58), Germany (56), and the U.K. (53).

"The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue to grow around the world," Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said in a release. "However, given the smoldering trade conflicts, especially between the U.S. and China, and economists' expectations that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakened slightly."

1 year on, the #DHL Global Trade Barometer accurately predicts #trade growth on a global scale - and for the world's top 7 trading nations. Full report here: https://t.co/VSMOGVPMMC #DHL_gtb pic.twitter.com/ifw6pfexPK

— DPDHL News (@DeutschePostDHL) November 28, 2018

The tempered forecast tracks similar results from other recent economic forecasts presented at industry conferences in Dallas and Orlando, indicating that economic signs suggest the U.S. could be headed for a moderate recession in 2020.

According to the latest DHL report, the predicted deceleration of worldwide trade growth is attributable to declines in both containerized ocean freight and international air trade, as markets retreat from an exceptionally busy year in 2017.

"At the end of the day, we'll still have growth, but temperatures are getting back to normal in a way," Scharwath said in an interview. "Global trade has been quite extraordinary in several quarters over the past two years, but businesses like it better when that growth is spread evenly across multiple quarters, rather than having spikes up and down."

DHL first launched the index in January, saying the tool could help both DHL and its customers to save money by predicting changes in freight volume, then adjusting to economic trends by applying changes in prices, transportation modes, and trade routes.

Global Strategy
  • Related Articles

    Global trade expansion to slow in first quarter of 2018, DHL forecasts

    Tariff increase will cost jobs, slow GDP growth, study says

    Honolulu, Dublin to pace growth in global industrial rents through 2019, report says

Ben Ames is Editor at Large and a Senior Editor at Supply Chain Quarterly?s sister publication, DC Velocity.

Recent Articles by Ben Ames

U.S. regulators approve merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern

Port of Savannah gains national market share

Norfolk Southern releases two safety plans to prevent future derailments

You must login or register in order to post a comment.

Report Abusive Comment

Most Popular Articles

  • Survey: most Americans unaware that truckers face shortage of parking spaces

  • Postal Service plans to seize items mailed with fake stamps

  • Best practices in logistics sustainability

  • Supply chain executives not yet seeing expected results from technology investments

  • Inflation drops again as interest rate hikes hit home, NRF says

Featured Video

20221107korber large vs

Enhancing Customer Experience with Your Supply Chain Strategy

Viewer Contributed
With the rise of e-commerce, many businesses have had to transform their warehouses to handle online orders in addition to regularly scheduled inventory shipments. This means warehouses need more information than ever before to ensure they can meet customers' needs. As a result, companies need to select warehouse...

FEATURED WHITE PAPERS

  • Guide to Pallet Rack Safety

  • 3PLs: Complete Orders Faster with Flexible Automation

  • A shipper's guide to navigating post-pandemic holiday freight

  • THE NEW WAY TO WAREHOUSE: 4 Innovations in Automation & Robotics to Boost Warehouse Productivity

View More

Subscribe to Supply Chain Quarterly

Get Your Subscription
  • SUBSCRIBE
  • E-NEWSLETTERS
  • ADVERTISING
  • CUSTOMER CARE
  • CONTACT
  • ABOUT
  • STAFF
  • PRIVACY POLICY

Copyright ©2023. All Rights ReservedDesign, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing