CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly
October 21, 2018
Forward Thinking

Honolulu, Dublin to pace growth in global industrial rents through 2019, report says

Industrial rents are expected to grow above trend worldwide in next three years, according to real estate services company CBRE.

Honolulu, Hawaii, and Dublin, Ireland—two cities as different as they come—will show the fastest pace of growth of all industrial property markets over the next three years, according to data released today by CBRE Inc., a real estate services concern.

Dublin will experience annual industrial rent growth of 7.9 percent, according to CBRE's global market outlook. Honolulu's projected annual growth rate will be a bit less than that, CBRE said. San Diego; Orange County, Calif., and Shenzhen, China will round out the top five. Other markets in the top 15 will include Seattle; Oakland, Calif.; Moscow; London; Shanghai; and Miami. Nine of the top 15 markets are in the Americas. Large U.S. markets like Los Angeles, Dallas/Fort Worth, and New York/New Jersey did not make the list, as their already-massive sizes serve as a break to outsized future growth.

Honolulu, considered a small market, experienced 12- to 15-percent annual rent growth from 2014 to 2016. Available space there is running at an ultra-tight 3.2-percent clip, meaning landlords have strong pricing power. In addition, there isn't much geographic competition for Honolulu real estate, unlike what exists on the U.S. mainland.

The bullish outlook for Dublin rents comes from optimistic economic growth projections and low levels of new supply, CBRE said.

Through the first three quarters of 2016, global industrial rents increased by 2.5 percent over the same period in 2015, CBRE said. The firm expects rents to grow above trend through 2019, though the report didn't indicate what the baseline trend is. European markets will remain strong as users pursue large warehouse spaces in major cities. However, limited supply in markets like London and Paris mean that most of the capacity will be found in peripheral locations, according to the report.

The U.S. and Canada will experience solid growth as supply chains expand to accommodate the growth of online retail. Canada is in the early stages of online retail growth, while the U.S., though far more established, still has room to run, according to the report. The outlook for Mexico has been muddied by risks of trade disruption following the election of Donald J. Trump, while Brazil is just now marking a gradual upturn in industrial expansion following a deep recession.

Asia-Pacific demand will remain stable as manufacturing recovers and consumption remains firm, the report said. Industrial rent demand there has been less robust than in the Americas and Europe, CBRE said.

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