CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly
December 17, 2017
Supply Chain Executive Insight E-Newsletter
Each week the Supply Chain Executive Insight e-newsletter will include brief articles about developments that are often overlooked by other supply chain publications. We will present you with summaries of the latest research as well as new ideas on how to make your supply chain operations more effective. And we'll offer commentary that sheds light on what's happening in supply chains today.
Sign up now!

Most Read Articles

News from our sister publication
DC Velocity
Forward Thinking

Improving U.S. economy boosts global trade growth

Comment
Global trade is seeing an uptick thanks in part to stronger economic performance in the United States.

With advanced economies seeing modest recovery in industrial production, global trade is estimated to have increased 2.8 percent in Q4/2013 to reach US $2.189 billion. This upturn was influenced by the United States, where economic activity is moving into higher gear as fiscal consolidation eases and monetary conditions improve.

In the eurozone, a slowdown in emerging markets, continuing troubles in Europe's credit markets, and persistently high unemployment still pose risks to economic growth, even as the long European recession comes to a close. In China, meanwhile, strong industrial production, improving exports, and a rebound of credit creation suggests stabilization after a period of decline. But slowing growth, weakening investments, and poorly performing exports are weighing on Russia's economy as well as slowing down emerging markets' trade performance.

Article Figures
[Figure 1] Container throughput vs. total trade
[Figure 1] Container throughput vs. total trade Enlarge this image
[Figure 2] Capgemini Consulting global trade flow index
[Figure 2] Capgemini Consulting global trade flow index Enlarge this image

China, the United States, and Germany continued to see modest growth in Q4. China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.1 percent while its total trade is forecast to increase by 4.1 percent. In the U.S., there is optimism about growing industrial production, and an improving economy is underpinning inflation, limiting layoffs, and lifting consumers' moods, brightening the outlook for growth. U.S. GDP grew by 0.6 percent while total trade increased by 2.2 percent. Germany is expected to record modest GDP growth of 0.5 percent for Q4, as the eurozone crisis took its toll on exports and investments.

Global container throughput is estimated to have grown by 1.5 percent in Q4/2013 (Figure 1). Container throughput in Europe has been affected by the euro crises from 2011 but is expected to recover due to the fiscal measures taken by the European Union. In our Global Trade Index, China retained its leading position in Q4, with the U.S. a close second (Figure 2).

For more about Capgemini Consulting's trade information services, contact Dan Albright, Vice President, Cathy Chinich, Senior Consultant, or Maks Zieciak, Consultant.

Dan Albright is a vice president at Capgemini Consulting. Cathy Chinich is a managing consultant at Capgemini Consulting. Maks Zieciak is a consultant at Capgemini Consulting.

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you're not already logged in, you will be asked to log in or register.


Want more articles like this? Sign up for a free subscription to Supply Chain Executive Insight, a monthly e-newsletter that provides insights and commentary on supply chain trends and developments. Click here to subscribe.

We Want to Hear From You! We invite you to share your thoughts and opinions about this article by sending an e-mail to ?Subject=Letter to the Editor: Quarter 2014: Improving U.S. economy boosts global trade growth"> . We will publish selected readers' comments in future issues of CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. Correspondence may be edited for clarity or for length.

Want more articles like this? Subscribe to CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.