CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly
December 17, 2017
Supply Chain Executive Insight E-Newsletter
Each week the Supply Chain Executive Insight e-newsletter will include brief articles about developments that are often overlooked by other supply chain publications. We will present you with summaries of the latest research as well as new ideas on how to make your supply chain operations more effective. And we'll offer commentary that sheds light on what's happening in supply chains today.
Sign up now!

Most Read Articles

News from our sister publication
DC Velocity
Forward Thinking

Global Trade and Container Flow Index

Comment
China, the United States, and Germany drove modest global economic growth in Q3

Most major global economies saw positive domestic and export growth over the last quarter. The exception was China, where exports have declined due to a slowdown in manufacturing and weakened overseas demand. But with China's exports stabilizing and global trade on the rebound, the global economy is expected to recover, even as markets adjust to the U.S. Federal Reserve's wind-down of quantitative easing.

Global container throughput declined by an estimated 1.6 percent in Q3/2013, even though rising import demand from developed economies drove up overall trade growth by 3.0 percent, to US $2.1 billion (see Figure 1). Container throughput in Europe, greatly affected by the region's economic crises of 2011, is expected to recover during Q4/2013 and into 2014, thanks to fiscal and operative measures taken by the European Central Bank. Additionally, the euro zone's exports to emerging markets have fallen, leaving Europe to seek other sources of demand for sustainable growth.

Article Figures
[Figure 1] Container throughput vs. total trade
[Figure 1] Container throughput vs. total trade Enlarge this image
[Figure 2] Capgemini Consulting global trade flow index
[Figure 2] Capgemini Consulting global trade flow index Enlarge this image

In Japan, newly elected officials have implemented an aggressive monetary policy to stimulate the economy and take advantage of the depreciating yen. The fastest-growing export destinations are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). However, Brazil continues to struggle with decelerating private consumption and demand for exports.

China, the United States, and Germany drove modest global economic growth in Q3. China's GDP grew by 1.3 percent and its total trade increased by 4.6 percent. Given the growth in land and housing values, China plans to bring its GDP measurement in line with global standards soon. Tax increases, federal spending cuts, and a reduction in consumer spending caused U.S. GDP growth to decelerate by 0.39 percent while total trade increased by 2.7 percent. Germany's exports to emerging markets have boosted its total trade by 3.0 percent, but its GDP growth rate declined by 0.55 percent in Q3.

For more about Capgemini Consulting's trade information services, contact Dan Albright, Vice President, Cathy Chinich, Senior Consultant, or Maks Zieciak, Consultant.

Dan Albright is a vice president at Capgemini Consulting. Maks Zieciak is a consultant at Capgemini Consulting.

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you're not already logged in, you will be asked to log in or register.


Want more articles like this? Sign up for a free subscription to Supply Chain Executive Insight, a monthly e-newsletter that provides insights and commentary on supply chain trends and developments. Click here to subscribe.

We Want to Hear From You! We invite you to share your thoughts and opinions about this article by sending an e-mail to ?Subject=Letter to the Editor: Quarter 2013: Global Trade and Container Flow Index"> . We will publish selected readers' comments in future issues of CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. Correspondence may be edited for clarity or for length.

Want more articles like this? Subscribe to CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.